Quick(est) Pick: Spain

Spain over the Netherlands 2-1. Dashing off to watch the game ... enjoy.

Quick Pick: Spain will find its Mojo

Spain v. Germany

This game looks like a final. It certainly has the pedigree — three-time champions Germany have made the semifinals in each of the last four World Cups; and perennial underachievers Spain have seemingly shrugged off their historical albatross, advancing to this, their first ever semifinal.

These two teams met in the final of Euro 2008, which served as Spain's coming out party. There, Spaniards beat Germans 1–0, a score line that said little about the way the former dominated the latter. Francisco Torres, much maligned in this tournament for not finding the back of the net, scored the game-winner two years ago, and looked threatening throughout.

At the beginning of the tournament I was quick to discount Germany's four-goal tally against Australia for lack of a quality opponent. And their supposed dismantling of England in truth looked more like the shuffling around of already broken pieces. But Germany's dominating win over Argentina, a team team blessed with abundant skill and, more importantly, riding high on confidence, was the real-deal. And, perhaps a result of their uncharacteristic youth, they do not lack for style and pace.

Still, for me, Spain will find a way. Their patience and confidence on the ball makes for a 90-minute master class in passing football. Their back-four keeps the ball better than most midfielders in the world—this group includes Gerard Pique, perhaps my favorite player at the World Cup, and the defender I always wished I could be. Until they struggled to find their trademark rhythm against Paraguay in the quarterfinals, they have looked like the best team in the tournament every time they stepped out on the field ... and that includes the opening game they lost to Switzerland, where they fell victim to Swiss opportunism and their own indifferent finishing.

It's that tendency in Spain to do the bare minimum that surely has Spanish fans nervous in the face of Germany's intimidating power and ruthless finishing. The question at hand may be style—Mediterranean panache pitted against Teutonic pragmatism—but it shouldn't be. It will matter little how stylishly the Spaniards pass the ball if the Germans take advantage of whatever handful of chances will inevitably fall their way. The stakes are zero-sum at this stage, the team with three World Cups to their name knows that well; so, too, should the team that has been repeatedly knocked out despite high expectations: lose one game and you're on a familiar flight home. Whether Spain can implement the lessons from generations of not-good-enough, as well as those learned in the Euro 2008 triumph, will make all the difference.

I still think Spain is the best team at the tournament — the most fun to watch and, when they're in the mood (admittedly rarely during this tournament), among the most dangerous attacking teams in the world. While I expect Germany to test Spain, I also expect them to bring out the killer instinct that has been missing from the Spanish side. Spain 3–1 Germany.

Quick pick: Netherlands through to the Finals

Netherlands v. Uruguay

I see Netherlands cruising to the finals. Uruguay looked overmatched against Ghana, and have an extra 30 minutes of grueling labor on their tired legs. To make matters worse, they're headed into today's game without one of their best players, Luis Suarez — he of sacrificial handballs.

Uruguay will look for Forlan on attack. The former Manchester United striker has had a revelatory tournament. And his whole team arguably deserves a spot in the finals on the basis of their pluck.

But ultimately, I think the Dutch team is just too talented and too deep for the South Americans. They could conceivably be in danger of looking beyond Uruguay at a massive all-Euro final, but I don't expect that. I predict a 2–0 win for the Oranje.

We Are All Korean Ladies

It's a roller coaster, this World Cup thing.

I haven't posted since before the U.S. loss to Ghana. That was last Saturday, back when the U.S. was looking at its best-ever chance at a WC semifinal; back when England had tentatively renewed its delusions of grandeur. Back then it looked like a South American party in South Africa, as tournament favorites Brazil looked strong (if not bonito) and Maradona's arsenal of good-luck paraphernalia was looking improbably successful.

And then things took a turn ... and a drop, and a twist.

Now, England is out, victims of the poorest call in a tournament notable for poor calls. Frank Lampard's goal that wasn't (I've used that phrase far too many times on this blog), has forced FIFA to re-examine its anti-technology stance. That stance, ensconced in romantic notions of a "pure" game was ludicrous to begin with, not to mention hugely hypocritical: the Jabulani's technological advancements have had more than their share of impact on this tournament ... but then again, Adidas does have a lot of money. And, now, with favorites Brazil and Argentina out, little Uruguay is the last South American standing. I wrote earlier about how upsetting the soccer establishment was one of the thrills of a non-European World Cup. Well, that's all moot now, but any fan of good football will be excited by the match ups to come.

A long time in the making ...

... that goal, the American's success, this blog post.

In extra time, just as everything looked lost, this scrappy and talented American team tapped into unbelievable energy reserves to make one last, glorious, barnstorming run on the Algerian goal. And when Landon Donavan slotted home the rebound off Clint Dempsey’s selfless body thrust/shot, he made an emphatic statement for the future of this game in our country.

For 90+ minutes, over coffee instead of a pint, we cheered, screamed, agonized and celebrated. When it was over, I wasn’t sure how to shake the buzz. To the detriment of my considerable list of chores, I spent the rest of the day watching highlights, chasing that feeling of elation. It was without a doubt the most engrossing sports watching experience I’ve ever had. Choosing my words carefully, I told Krista it might well have been the best non-marital day of my life.

As it turns out the fallout from that goal is just as exciting. In topping Group C by virtue of goals scored (three, versus England's two), the U.S. has vaulted into what is without doubt the easiest quadrant of the bracket. Consider the FIFA rankings, however dubious they may be. The United States, ranked 14th, is the technical favorite (don't tell them that) for a spot in the semifinals, ranked higher than Ghana (32), Uruguay (16) and South Korea (47). This means it’s now guaranteed that from among this unheralded quartet there will be at least one surprise guest in the semifinals.

By contrast, in 2006, the semi-finals comprised Germany, Italy, Portugal and France — for those of you new to this, that's a who's-who of traditional football powers. The quarterfinals were equally stacked with the football establishment — Argentina, England and France. And if Spain had opted for more cynical gamesmanship and allowed winless Saudi Arabia to win their final group game, they, rather than Ukraine would have drawn Switzerland in the Round of 16 and found easy passage to an all-favorites quarterfinals.

Eight years ago in Korea/Japan, the Round of 16 resembled the one now set in South Africa. There is an argument, made tacitly or otherwise, that the tournaments not held in the cradles of football (Western Europe, first; South America, second) cannot provide an optimal environment for the tournament. There’s another argument that says if the best can’t perform outside the comforts of home, then they really shouldn’t be considered the best. I prefer the latter.

As it stands, France and Italy, the two finalists from four years ago are on their way back to the comforts of the Western world. I couldn’t be more excited about what their departure means for the rest of the Cup. As for those two [former] powerhouses:

Amazing.

USA 1 – 0 ALG

(USA) – Donovan (90' +1)

This game — the near-misses and the tension, the agony and, finally, the elation — it's the reason this sport and this tournament are the world's greatest.

Jozy Altidore was sensational — same, too, Michael Bradley. Dempsey finally showed up, peppering the Algeria goal. And Landon Donovan, reverting for most of the game to the timid Donovan of told, finds the goal that puts the U.S. through to the second of I'll check back a little later with a recap.

Meantime, celebrate. We're through the Round of 16, and top of the group, no less.

PREVIEW — USA v. Algeria

The blogging has slipped over the last couple days, but I'm up watching the Americans' final group game, and you should be too.

Yesterday's South Korea/Nigeria matched showed why the simultaneous final groups games can be so thrilling ... and so devastating. As Argentina trotted their way to a late-ish 2–0 win (the powerful Albiceleste didn't break the Greek defense until the 77th minute), second place—and with it, qualification for the second round—hung in the balance. It was edge-of-your-seat stuff. As South Korea clung to a 2–2 tie, Nigeria looked the stronger of the sides. But the African team couldn't find the final touch and they head home.

The U.S. finds itself in a strong position—win and they're in. They'll have to avoid the early let-up that has troubled them in each of the last two games. And they'll have to find goals. Not much more analysis than that. There is a series of other scenarios that, should the U.S. tie today, still sees them through to the second round — look 'em up. For me, all those scenarios are moot — just win the game.

My prediction: 2–0. I'll check back in after the game.

UPDATE: Just saw the lineup — Bornstein at left-back is troubling, almost mind-boggling. He's had more than his share of slip-ups in a U.S. shirt. But he's also had some big games — here's hoping he digs one out tonight.